Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.539043 2.705784 2.883531 3.088083 3.318216 3.570599 3.870358
2025-04-06 2.269857 2.491281 2.739699 3.042288 3.405491 3.833635 4.386320
2025-04-13 2.073101 2.318109 2.602175 2.961557 3.412811 3.973524 4.745431
2025-04-20 1.979688 2.249662 2.571839 2.993631 3.545971 4.268245 5.329865
2025-04-27 1.917526 2.209912 2.567841 3.051187 3.709427 4.613799 6.034628
2025-05-04 1.863708 2.174215 2.562896 3.102521 3.864364 4.961539 6.804086
2025-05-11 1.786743 2.103003 2.505421 3.075825 3.903646 5.140992 7.336498
2025-05-18 1.720930 2.041602 2.455670 3.053764 3.944273 5.323285 7.907333
2025-05-25 1.660224 1.983168 2.405565 3.025993 3.971357 5.484083 8.471462
2025-06-01 1.604792 1.928689 2.357221 2.996258 3.990865 5.632135 9.043617
2025-06-08 1.565361 1.893527 2.333059 2.999298 4.060673 5.873737 9.874747
2025-06-15 1.540640 1.876843 2.333234 3.037711 4.189972 6.238991 11.102961
2025-06-22 1.491181 1.824847 2.281737 2.995386 4.183203 6.353820 11.780212
2025-06-29 1.444436 1.774879 2.230919 2.950978 4.168934 6.452435 12.456854
2025-07-06 1.391362 1.714204 2.162036 2.874162 4.091616 6.413849 12.737683
2025-07-13 1.372368 1.700596 2.161006 2.904651 4.206597 6.789307 14.431918
2025-07-20 1.361197 1.697400 2.174799 2.959346 4.370304 7.299924 16.913259
2025-07-27 1.348975 1.692059 2.184846 3.008100 4.527652 7.829895 19.944914
2025-08-03 1.318645 1.659432 2.152069 2.982749 4.539016 8.012910 21.682210
2025-08-10 1.291065 1.629934 2.122898 2.961794 4.557029 8.216474 23.740160
2025-08-17 1.263612 1.599799 2.091602 2.935408 4.561660 8.386965 25.839914
2025-08-24 1.237078 1.570267 2.060190 2.907148 4.559996 8.541281 28.075330
2025-08-31 1.219062 1.552807 2.046954 2.910038 4.623512 8.890493 32.231831